Biodiversity post-2020: synthesizing large-scale predictions for the future under climate and land use change

Organized by: Laura Bosco, Marjakangas Emma-Liina, Finnish Museum of Natural History, Finland
WED 24 (14:00)

Anthropogenic pressures including climate and land use change are widely recognized as major drivers of the ongoing global biodiversity crisis (1). Processes such as increasing temperatures, urbanization and agricultural intensification are just a few of the stressors to species, and communities and forcing them to either adapt, move or go extinct. Although effects of those anthropogenic pressures are already visible in many ecosystems globally, current climate change scenarios are predicting a further increase in global mean temperatures above pre-industrial levels (2), exacerbating the loss of biodiversity, termination of evolutionary potential and disruption of ecosystem services (3). Many species are not able to adapt to the new conditions rapidly enough and are coerced to shift their ranges to match their environmental niches (4). Despite the fast-increasing research addressing global change and its effects on biodiversity, most of the past work on the topic has been conducted at the national or regional level hampering the feasibility to synthesize patterns and draw conclusions at a scale relevant to policy making and conservation action (5). Furthermore, with a growing human population and ongoing climate change we know that anthropogenic pressures will likely continue to intensify in the future – which is why we now need to anticipate major and scale-relevant drivers for future biodiversity based on lessons from the past (6). Our symposia will serve as a platform for synthesizing large-scale, international studies covering large spatial areas and a wide range of taxa to obtain a more holistic and “big-picture” overview of main drivers for future biodiversity patterns and solutions to mitigate its loss thereafter.

Reference list
1. Johnson, Christopher N., et al. (2017). Biodiversity losses and conservation responses in the Anthropocene. Science 356: 270-275.

2. Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (2018). Global warming of 1.5 C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5.

3. Dawson, Terence P., et al. (2011). Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332: 53-58.

4. Chen, I.C., Hill, J.K., Ohlemüller, R., Roy, D.B. & Thomas, C.D. (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333: 1024–1026.

5. Díaz, Sandra, et al. (2020). Synthesizing the scientific evidence to inform the development of the post-2020 Global Framework on Biodiversity. Twenty-fourth meeting, Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice. 

6. Pereira, Laura M., et al. (2020). Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework. People and Nature 2.4: 1172-1195.

Biodiversity post‐2020: Closing the gap between global targets and national‐level implementation
- Andrea Perino (German Centre For Integrative Biodiversity Research (idiv), Germany)

Can global biodiversity trends be detected using local species richness?
- Jose Valdez (German Centre For Integrative Biodiversity Research (idiv, Germany)

Forecasting future range shifts to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe:  the importance of considering biotic interactions 
- Janine P. da Silva (Centre Of Molecular And Environmental Biology - Minho University)

European Breeding Bird Atlases as a tool to study large-scale changes in biodiversity
- Petr Voříšek (European Bird Census Council/Czech Society for Ornithology, Czech Republic)

Mapping future mammal exposure to extreme drought and warm spells
- Carmen Soria (Sapienza University Of Rome)

Using global scenarios of phylogenetic diversity to design conservation priorities
- Marine Robuchon (Joint Research Centre of The European Commission, Italy)

General discussion & wrapping up the symposium