Authors: Gerling, Charlotte ;Drechsler, Martin;Keuler, Klaus;Sturm, Astrid; Wätzold, Frank;

Intensive agricultural land use is one of the most important threats to species. One policy option to conserve species in agricultural landscapes are incentive-based instruments such as the implementation of conservation measures defined in payments for ecosystem service schemes or agri-environment schemes (AES). A key criterion to assess the suitability of an AES is cost-effectiveness. Additional complexity in the assessment arises when considering the threat that climate change poses for species conservation. Under climate change, initially cost-effective conservation measures need to be adapted to remain cost-effective. To develop recommendations for the necessary adaptations, the impact of climate change on both the species and on costs of conservation measures has to be considered. We developed a climate-ecological-economic model and examine the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of AES measures in the near (2020-39) and remote future (2060-79).
We specifically model the impact of climate change on both the species and costs and consider two climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We apply the model to the case study of conserving a set of meadow-breeding bird species in Schleswig-Holstein, a Federal State in Northern Germany. Our results show how AES need to be adapted to remain cost-effective under climate change.