Authors: Montgomery, Robert; Mudumba, Tutilo;Wijers, Matthew;

The conservation of biodiversity represents a profound challenge for global society in a dynamic 21st century. The threat to biodiversity are many including habitat loss, climate change, disease, invasive speciation, conflict, and hunting. Illegal animal harvest, a contributor of biodiversity loss, occurs along a relative selectivity spectrum from indiscriminate to highly selective. Extensive research has evaluated the impacts of selective harvest on animal populations. In contrast, the ways in which indiscriminate harvest pressure shapes populations of non-target species is unclear. We used simulation modelling to predict the persistence of an African lion population (Panthera leo) subject to indiscriminate harvest pressure from non-target subsistence poaching in Murchison Falls National Park, Uganda. Simulations predicted lion population extirpation following a 50% rise of lethal poaching pressure above the observed. When lethal poaching pressure doubled, the lion population was extirpated in ~70% of our simulations. In simulations in which subsistence poaching as a lethal pressure was eliminated, the lion population nearly doubled in just 19 years. We discuss how indiscriminate poaching can affect non-target species and describe interventions to effectively promote population recovery of species of conservation concern.