Authors: Toraño Caicoya, Astor; Toraño Caicoya, Astor;Stephan, Jörg;Klein, Julian;di Fulvio, Fulvio;Forsell, Nicklas;Snäll, Tord;

Future demand for timber products will affect forest management depending on the future climate and socioeconomic conditions and, it will, therefore, affect the capability of landscapes to provide forest ecosystems services and biodiversity (FESB). With the help of forest growth simulations, we show the performance of management regimes to provide FESB and the trade-offs between preservation of biodiversity, timber demands, and multifunctionality. We present a novel approach that, using Bayesian modelling, predicts the future provision of FESB. Moreover, using multi-objective optimisation, we evaluate two scenarios that calculate the optimal combination of management regimes to fulfil the future demand of timber products and achieve landscape multifunctionality. In general, high proportions of harvest intensification would be needed to meet future timber demands, while continuous cover forestry contributes the best to multifunctionality. However, the distribution of diverse management regimes over the landscape offers the best solution in all optimised scenarios. Finally, we show how some FESB are more resilient (e.g. edible plants or bird diversity), while others are susceptible (e.g. mycorrhiza, temperature regulation or saprotrophic species) to management regimes. Thus, we will contribute to the biodiversity and multifunctional oriented management of landscapes accounting for future timber demands and with a measure of uncertainty.