Authors: Sánchez Arribas, Eva; Planillo, Aimara;Premier, Joseph;Kürschner, Tobias;EUROLynx, Partners;Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie;Molinari-Jobin, Anja;

Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) populations reintroduced in Europe in the 1970’s stagnated in the 1990’s and remain isolated until today. Mutual connectivity is essential for their long-term survival, which makes the Alps, due to their location and extensive suitable habitat, crucial for a Central European metapopulation. We used an individual-based spatially-explicit model to simulate five lynx populations in Central Europe until 2040 (Scenario 1), and the effect of 14 lynx reintroduced within the LIFE Lynx project (Scenario 2). We 1) assessed population viability and 2) connectivity under both scenarios; and 3) determined the Minimum Viable Population for a stepping-stone network within the Alps. Preliminary results show that, in both scenarios, the Jura population has the best chances of survival while the Dinaric is the most vulnerable, with extinction probabilities of 72 or 66%, respectively. Connectivity between core lynx populations was minimal. Still, reintroductions within the Dinaric population improved its survival and local connectivity. Finally, at least eight breeding pairs were needed for a stepping-stone. Our work highlights the fragility of the lynx Dinaric population. The slow natural expansion of lynx populations and the consequent lack of connectivity, reinforces the need to introduce genetic variability and promote gene flow between populations.