Authors: Dragonetti, Chiara; Visconti, Piero;Daskalova, Gergana;Di Marco, Moreno;

Mountain ecosystems are being rapidly transformed by global change drivers such as climate change and human use, yet little is known about how these anthropogenic pressures combine and interact to reshape the planet's mountains. Here, we quantify the spatial change in climate, land use and human population density in global mountain areas, identifying areas that might be most at anthropogenic risk by 2050. We analyse multiple scenarios of socio-economic development and resulting global change projections to estimate different metrics of change: magnitude and velocity of change and change in area of analogue conditions. Our analysis disentangles areas that are exposed to different pressures or to a suite of simultaneously-occurring pressures. We highlight areas where an acceleration in global change could pose a threat to mountain biodiversity. Alternative emission scenarios mean priorities for policy intervention must be dynamic and adapt to rapidly changing conditions. Yet, we found that several tropical mountains are predicted to suffer from accelerating human pressure, regardless of the scenario considered. A classification of mountain areas in which climate change acts together with direct human pressure in the future can highlight different management possibilities, as well as how different emission scenarios are projected to influence mountain regions.