Authors: Mazziotta, Adriano; Lundström, Johanna;Forsell, Nicklas;Moor, Helen;Eggers, Jeannette;Subramanian, Narayanan;Aquilué, Núria;Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra;Brotons, Lluís;Snäll, Tord;

To stabilize global warming under 2°C by 2100, societies act to increase the global terrestrial carbon sink in forests with bioenergy, bioeconomy and natural climate solutions (NCS). NCS means protection via set-aside to store carbon in standing biomass and soil. Bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions mean managing forests intensively to produce biofuels and bioproducts. NCS provide more habitat for biodiversity and non-wood ecosystem services (ES) compared to bioenergy and bioeconomy. We evaluate the future impact of policies with increasing wood demand on seven ES linked with biomass production, climate change mitigation and biodiversity in the Swedish forests under increasing climate change. We demonstrate that: (1) increasing wood demand will decrease ES multifunctionality of managed forests, but climate change will counterbalance this negative trend; (2) climate change will negatively impact the supply of ES more strongly in production than in NCS forests; (3) increasing wood harvesting and climate change will decrease ES synergies and increase ES trade-offs, but NCS will strongly increase ES synergies and turn ES trade-offs into synergies. To conclude, even though policies of increasing wood demand will drastically reduce forest ES multifunctionality, NCS will minimize this negative impact, representing a stronghold to increase the resilience of the working landscape.