Authors: Llopis, Jorge; Jones, Julia;

Slowing tropical deforestation is a major global policy objective given its role in tackling the combined challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss. Establishment of protected areas (PAs) is a commonly used tool. However, PA establishment might potentially result in unintended consequences; specifically pre-emptive forest clearing as people anticipate the upcoming policy restrictions, which has been anecdotally identified in other policy contexts. This is the first study to systematically investigate the phenomenon, and to explore whether it undermines benefits from PA establishment. We focus on Madagascar, which expanded its PA network by more than 400% between 2003 and 2017, using the synthetic control method to assess deforestation outcomes in some 300 administrative units overlapping with 25 PAs established as part of this expansion. Results suggest that pre-emptive forest clearing did occur in a large number of units. In most units, PA appears to have brought net gains in avoided deforestation, but worryingly, in many other units, pre-emptive forest clearing completely negated the intervention’s gains. These findings raise concerns about the prevalence of this phenomenon in Madagascar, and potentially elsewhere, and highlight the need to revisit the assumptions underpinning the theories of change informing area-based forest conservation interventions.