Authors: Davoli, Marco; Svenning, Jens-Christian;

Estimating the near-future distribution of European large animals (i.e. megafauna) under forecasted perspectives predicts upcoming opportunities and challenges for nature-based solutions in ecosystems restoration and conservation science.
New ecological relationships that may be triggered by the future coexistence of humans and large animals in shared landscapes can indeed bring to one hand at the return of fundamental ecosystem services to the European citizens, and on the other hand to the risk of intensive conflict with farmers, undermining tolerance for wildlife and policymakers engaged in conservation. With the aim to develop science-based support for the decision-making process on landscape management in Europe, I will collect and examine, through forecasted modelling, data on the current distribution of European megafauna and trends in land-use abandonment, wildlife tolerance, current species (re-)introduction efforts, and climate change across the continent. With the results, I will indicate future hotspots of megafauna return, which would create potential for biodiversity rewiring through trophic chains restoration, and future hotspots of conflict, thus where megafauna will roam into strategic areas for cropping and farming.
The project is part of the TERRANOVA-ITN network, and will be an international collaboration between Aarhus University (DK), Humboldt University (GE), and iDiv Research Center (GE).