Authors: Klein, Julian;Henckel, Laura;Eggers, Jeannette;Bradter, Ute;Fabritius, Henna; Moor, Helen;Snäll, Tord;

Countries are transferring into fossil-free economies with increasing demands on woody products. This makes a rigorous process identifying policy instruments that reconcile wood production and biodiversity conservation ever more important. Land-use policies that are founded in the expertise and particular interests of key stakeholders are likely more implementable and politically long-lasting, however, only if a common perception about the future exists. In this study, we simulate the development of a >100000 ha Swedish forest landscape 100 years into the future, based on the management and policy scenarios of four key stakeholders. We based simulations on state-of-the art models for eleven species of conservation concern. The simulations show that most species do as well or better as today after 100 years under all but the most production-oriented scenario (formulated by Swedish landowners). For wood-decaying fungi, the percentage forest not managed with even-aged forestry was the common denominator for this result. Birds and the lichen Lobaria pulmonaria showed stable or positive developments on all management types. The scenario presented by the state-owned forestry company was the most production-oriented scenario, which still largely sustained biodiversity after 100 years. The species generally increased in the scenarios by the Sweden’s EPA and largest environmental NGO.