Authors: Davoli, Marco; Svenning, Jens-Christian;

Megafauna comeback in Europe is a remarkable success for conservation. This trend is favored by revised hunting regulations, implemented legal protection, and structural change in agriculture that leads to farmland abandonment and outmigration from rural areas. The narrative of European megafauna comeback often focus on positive outcomes such as the restoration of trophic chains in degraded ecosystems, which links to an increased delivery of ecosystem services to humans. However, a key aspect in this context is also the evaluation of coexistence potential for humans and megafauna. Husbandry and farming methods in Europe have developed for decades in a context without free-roaming large animals. Therefore, the risk of an escalation in livestock depredation, or excessive frequency of crop-raiding events, is concreate, and it would lead to decreasing support for conservation by citizens.

In this study, we estimate potential future megafauna distribution in Europe under multiple scenarios of social dynamics. With distribution thus mapped, we indicate both pros and cons of megafauna comeback. This by 1) mapping hotspots of ecosystem restoration - comparing with deep-past biodiversity baselines - and 2) mapping hotspots for human-wildlife conflict. This last estimation is pivotal to prevent drawbacks caused by megafauna comeback and enhance odds for coexistence.