Authors: Bluhm, Hendrik; Kümmerle, Tobias;

The recent rebounding of large mammals in Europe is a hopeful trend for conservation. Knowing where recolonizations are possible is crucial to guide conservation planning and to proactively manage conflicts, but broad-scale assessments of recovery potential are missing for most species. We assessed the recolonization potential of Europe’s two largest herbivores, the European bison (Bison bonasus) and moose (Alces alces), across Central Europe. Using large occurrence datasets from multiple populations, we separately assessed environmental habitat suitability and human pressure on these species. We then modeled landscape connectivity as well as directed westward movements originating from extant populations to assess recolonization opportunities and limitations. We identified widespread environmentally-suitable habitat for both, European bison (>120,000 km²) and moose (>244,000 km²), showing a substantial potential for recolonizations. However, many potential habitat patches were associated with high levels of human pressure (European bison: 37%, moose: 43%), particularly in western regions of our study area, indicating high risk for human-wildlife conflicts. Moreover, we identified a strong east-west gradient of decreasing connectivity, as well as substantial barriers that likely limit natural recolonization processes. Our results suggest that conservation measures fostering the return of large herbivores should prioritize on restoring broad-scale connectivity in Europe’s increasingly fragmented landscapes.