Authors: Blattert, Clemens; Mönkkönen, Mikko ;Burgas, Daniel ;Di Fulvio, Fulvio;Toraño Caicoya, Astor;Vergarechea , Marta;Klein, Julian;Hartikainen, Markus;Antón-Fernández, Clara;Astrup, Rasmus;

The EU decided on clear climate change mitigation targets to reach climate neutrality, also taking into account forests and their timber resources. We investigate consequences of increased timber demands resulting from EU mitigations targets on the objectives of national forest sectoral policies for forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (FESB). Using three Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden and Norway) and Germany as study regions, we first simulate forest dynamics and management to gain information on the future FESB provision. Second, we model the future timber demands for each region related to EU climate change mitigation targets, and elaborate FESB demands stated in national policy documents. Third, we resolve the optimal forest management for EU-level and national-level policy demands and analyze the cross-scale policy coherence. We show that key European timber-producing countries (Finland, Sweden, Germany) may not be able to cover increased timber demands for material and bioenergy usage arsing under the ambitious 1.5°C target. Focusing on EU mitigation targets further conflicts with national sectoral policies and cause adverse effects on multiple forest ecosystem services and biodiversity. We argue that the role of forest and its timber resources for achieving targets on climate change mitigation and societal decarbonization should not be overstated.