Authors: Alagador, Diogo;

The critical dependence of amphibians on water and wetness makes them largely vulnerable to global warming. In Iberian Peninsula amphibians are particularly susceptible, as this is a region already exposed to dryness and high temperatures. I introduce a framework which, based on the geometry of sequential adaptation areas, the predictive uncertainty and land uses, provides a guideline for conservation management in the face of climate change. The vulnerability of each species to climate change is appraised using an exposure/adaptability/risk scheme. On-place climatic stress informs on exposure, adaptability is assessed using metrics about adaptive dynamics and risk of failure is related with land uses and with the geometry of suitable areas along time, which accounts on the success of conservation actions. Large dissimilarities on vulnerability expectancies among the 27 species analyzed were found. Those differences emerged particularly from the combined result of different: levels of converging trajectories; sequential overlays of suitable areas in rear and leading range edges; magnitudes of uncertainty, and land uses. Based on the regionalization of these responses, preferential portfolios of conservation actions were indicated. The framework presented is a first step towards an effective climate-resilient conservation planning for Iberian amphibians.