Authors: Canessa, Stefano; Oneto, Fabrizio;Ottonello, Dario;Rosa, Giacomo;Salvidio, Sebastiano;

Adaptive management is both a very valuable tool for conservation and one of its greatest clichés. One of the most common misconceptions is that formal adaptive management is risky and requires large-scale programs with considerable dedicated resources. Here, we faced a decision problem when planning the reintroduction of endangered yellow-bellied toads Bombina variegata in northern Italy. We sought to collect animals for release, but wished first and foremost not to impact the source population. We used a decision tree to set quantitative thresholds of acceptable risks, then used simulations to plan monitoring, implemented actions, and matched monitoring data to predictions to make decisions. Using this approach, we effectively minimized risks to the source, and although releases were ultimately unsuccessful, it allowed us confidence for future attempts. Conservation projects that involve some level of risk can benefit greatly from being managed adaptively: the key is to truly understand some key principles, to have a desire to act rationally and to do some hard thinking.