Authors: Williams, Jessica; Groner, Vivienne;Ferguson-Gow, Henry;Spooner, Fiona;Shen, David;Munyai, Caswell;Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe;Slotow, Rob;Pearson, Richard;

Anthropogenic pressures are leading to shifts in community composition, which can lead to declines in ecosystem functioning and impact the benefits that nature provides for people. One major question within this ongoing biodiversity crisis is how resilient are ecosystem services to these community shifts? We combined species distribution modelling, Bayesian networks, and risk assessment approaches to investigate the potential impact of climate and land-use change on two key ecosystem services in South Africa: pollination and pest control. By incorporating multiple methods, we were able to include the impacts of abiotic drivers and biotic interactions on species distributions, as well as account for species’ differing contributions towards ecosystem services. Our results show that future changes to climate and land use have the potential to significantly influence the capacity of ecological communities to provide pollination and pest control, with impacts differing across scenarios and space. We also demonstrate that incorporating biotic interactions is key to understanding species range shifts and the provision of ecosystem services. Our study presents an important step forward in our understanding of how resilient ecosystem services are to species turnover, which is crucial if we are to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under future environmental changes.