Authors: Rigal, Stanislas; Devictor, Vincent;Dakos, Vasilis;PECBMS, Working Group;

The dynamics of European bird populations have been reported for decades, showing a general decline in bird abundances. However, the direct effect of the main anthropogenic pressures on bird populations remains difficult to identify as pressures may interact at different spatial scales and bird responses may vary between species and be delayed in time. Our objective is to quantify the influence of four widespread anthropogenic pressures (agricultural intensification, change in forest cover, urbanisation and climate change) on the dynamics of bird populations and to identify the traits of the most impacted species. We therefore analyse time-series of 170 common bird species monitored in 28 European countries over 37 years in relation to each of the four pressures. Agricultural intensification appears to be the main negative factor in the decline of most bird populations, while forest cover is associated with a positive effect, urbanisation with a negative effect and species’ thermal preference determines the effect of temperature change on each species. Our results rank and quantify the effects of anthropogenic pressures on European common bird population, highlighting the urgent need for transformative changes in agricultural practices, landscape management and climate change mitigation to effectively conserve these populations.