Authors: Morley, Jonathan; Buchanan, Graeme;Mitchard, Edward;Keane, Aidan;

Mining is vital part of the global, and many national, economies and it is integral to the transition to renewable energy. However, mining also presents a significant risk to the conservation of biodiversity as it has the potential to drive extensive deforestation with impacts reaching far from the mine itself. Accurately quantifying the deforestation impact of mining is important for a number of stakeholders yet the existing literature is limited. To address this gap, we applied statistical matching methods, a quasi-experimental causal inference methodology, and spatiotemporal generalized linear models to assess the impact on deforestation of new mining developments in Zambia from 2000. Zambia is a global significant producer of minerals and is home to miombo woodlands which are vital for biodivety and the livelihoods of millions of people. We found no evidence that new any of 22 new mines we analysed had increased deforestation compared with matched controls. Measuring the environmental impacts of mines and other development activities requires the application of robust impact evaluation methodologies.