Authors: Mattsson, Brady J.; Devries, James H.;Dubovsky, James A.;Semmens, Darius;Thogmartin, Wayne E.;Derbridge, Jonathan J.;Lopez-Hoffman, Laura;

Land-use intensification on arable land is expanding and posing a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. We predicted population trajectories of a migratory bird species at a continental scale under varying levels of landscape-scale conservation investments while accounting for hunting regulation. In particular, we linked habitat conservation at landscape scales to equilibrium abundance of a migratory species at the continental scale. To achieve this, we combined a landscape habitat model, fecundity model, harvest model and a full-annual-cycle population-projection model. We applied this novel approach to the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta), a species valued by birders and hunters in North America, and well below its population goal. Based on empirical observations from 2007-2016, realistic scenarios for harvest and habitat conservation costing an estimated $588M (2016 USD) led to predicted pintail population sizes < 3M when assuming average parameter values. Given competing needs for remaining lands and fiscal limitations on conservation funding, our findings indicate that achieving the continental population goal of 4M individuals is unlikely. Using our work as a starting point, we propose continued development of modeling approaches that link conservation funding, habitat delivery, and population response to better integrate habitat conservation and harvest management of migratory species.