Authors: Leclere, David; Janssens, Charlotte;Valin, Hugo;Hill, Samantha;Escobar, Neus;Boere, Esther;Havlìk, Petr;

Agricultural trade has been identified as a leverage point to reverse global biodiversity declines. It however plays a complex role in biodiversity declines from land use change, with heterogeneous net land use impacts across commodities and regions, leaving unclear the potential for a more positive contribution. We explore with the GLOBIOM global land use model the role of agricultural trade in achieving ambitious biodiversity goals. We estimate the environmental (biodiversity, GHG emissions) and socio-economic (food security, value added) impacts of scenarios combining alternative assumptions about trade (exacerbated liberalization, frictions and reconfigurations) and broader efforts to bend the curve of biodiversity loss (ambitious conservation, supply-side and demand-side efforts). Preliminary results show positive socio-economic impacts and negative environmental impacts in a scenario prolongating historical trends. Exacerbated liberalization worsens environmental impacts for mixed socio-economic impacts, while trade restrictions have mild environmental gains and negative socio-economic impacts. High levels of trade could be maintained with much lower environmental impacts if assuming additional conservation and supply-side efforts, pointing to a significant potential for sustainable trade. Assuming additional demand-side efforts is more disruptive, with much larger environmental gains but also large declines in value added and trade flows.